MALA ŠKOLA KULTURE I SUBKULTURE GOVORA

 

STANJE I PERSPEKTIVE KORIŠTENJA ENERGIJE VJETRA U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI – POGLED IZ 2025

STATUS AND PROSPECTS OF   WIND ENERGY USE IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA – A VIEW FROM 2025

                                Elvir Zlomušica

Bosna i Hercegovina - kandidat za članstvo u Evropskoj uniji   Bosna i Hercegovina (BiH) je od kraja 2022. godine kandidat za članstvo u Evropskoj uniji (EU). U narednom periodu BiH mora, između ostalog, uskladiti svoju energetsku politiku s politikom EU. Okvirne klimatske i energetske politike EU do 2030. godine uključuju ciljeve na nivou EU za period od 2021. do 2030. godine. Jedan od ključnih ciljeva do 2030. godine je najmanje 42,5% udjela obnovljivih izvora energije. Ovi ciljevi postaju još važniji zbog ratova u Ukrajini i Palestini i svih ovih kretanja koji prijete da „zavibriraju“ Planetu. Energija vjetra dobila je važnu ulogu na ovom putu ispunjavanja postavljenih ciljeva.  EU je imala instaliranih 231 GW kapaciteta iz energije vjetra na kraju 2024. godine. Preko 90% su to kopnene (onshore) vjetroelektrane. Kako bi ostvarila cilj smanjenja emisije stakleničkih gasova (GHG) za 55% u odnosu na nivo iz 1990. godine do 2030., EU bi trebala dodavati 36 GW novih kapaciteta vjetroelektrana godišnje kako bi dostigla cilj od 425 GW. Prema dostupnim podacima, prosječna snaga novih kopnenih (onshore)vjetroturbina u 2024. godini iznosila je 4,6 MW, a za morske (offshore) vjetroturbine10,1 MW. Stepen iskorištenja za onshore vjetroelektrane iznosio je 24%, isto kao i prethodne godine, dok je za offshore iznosio 34%. Tokom 2024. godine, vjetroelektrane u EU proizvele su 475 TWh električne energije, što je činilo 19% ukupne potražnje za električnom energijom; usporedbe radi u 2018. godini taj udio je iznosio 12%. Države sa udjelom energije vjetra u svom miksu iznad 20% u 2024. godini bile su Danska, Irska, Švedska, Njemačka, te Nizozemska, Portugal, Litvanija, Španija, Finska i Grčka. Dakle, 10 od 27 članica EU.  Puhni vjetre malo sa Neretve (ime bosanske narodne pjesme)  Posmatranja i mjerenja karakteristika vjetra u Bosni i Hercegovini provode se više od 130 godina. Do 1992. karaktersitke vjetra su se mjerile na petnestak hidrometeoroloških stanica, koje su većinom bile smještene u urbanim dijelovima gradova. Prva mjerenja uz korištenje adekvatne opreme i tehnologije, s ciljem utvrđivanja potencijala energije vjetra na predmetnoj lokaciji, započela su 2002. godine.  Dobijanje energije iz vjetroelektrana u BiH je analizirano kroz različite segmente.Također je analizirana mogućnost proizvodnje opreme za vjetroturbine (Soko, Energoinvest, Bratstvo - Travnik, Željezara Zenica, Metalno, UMEL, Vranica, itd.).   Provedeni su različiti projekti i istraživačke inicijative (ImproImpex-COIE, fakulteti u Mostaru, Sarajevu, Zenici, Tuzli, Banjoj Luci, FHMZ). Najznačajniji među njima je projekt SEEWIND, istraživačko-demonstracijski projekat u okviru Okvirnog programa Evropske komisije, sa predstavnicima/partnerima iz šest evropskih zemalja.  Trenutno stanje u Bosni i Hercegovini  Prva vjetroelektrana u Bosni i Hercegovini, Mesihovina, puštena je u rad 2018. godine, zatim vjetroelektrana Jelovača početkom 2019. godine, a vjetroelektrana Podveležje 2021. godine. Krajem 2024. i početkom 2025. godine počele su sa radom VE Ivovik i VE Ivan Sedlo. U sljedećoj tabeli prikazane su osnovne karakteristike postojećih vjetroelektrana u Bosni i Hercegovini.  Vjetroelektrana - Ukupna nominalna snaga i tip turbina Mesihovina              50,6 MW (22 × Siemens SWT-2.3) Jelovača                   36,0 MW (18 × Gamesa G97/2000) Podveležje                48,0 MW (15 × Siemens SWT-3.2) Ivovik                         84 MW (20 × Goldwind 4.2) Ivan Sedlo                25 MW (5 × Siemens Gamesa 5.0)  Na slici su prikazane lokacije izgrađenih vjetroelektrana u Bosni i Hercegovini.  Ukupan instalirani kapacitet iznosi 243,6 MW. U zadnje četiri godine udio energija vjetra u Bosni i Hercegovini u ukupnoj proizvodnji električne energije kretao se od 2 do 3%. Analizirajući indikatore proizvodnje (GWh/MW, kWh/m2, koeficijent iskorištenja i dr.)za prve tri instalisane vjetroelektrane (Mesihovina, Jelovača, Podveležje), koje su u pogonu četiri i više godina, može se zaključiti da one rade u skladu sa projektovanim vrijednostima. Perspektiva Prema podacima WindEurope, određeni kapaciteti energije vjetra instalirani su u svim zemljama bivše Jugoslavije. Budući da sve ove zemlje imaju status članica EU, kandidata ili potencijalnih kandidata, očekuje se da će se ovi kapaciteti nastaviti povećavati, uključujući i u Bosni i Hercegovini.  Vjetroparkovi u zemljama bivše Jugoslavije na kraju 2024. godine Država                      Instalirana snaga Hrvatska                    1303 MW Srbija                         6323 MW Bosna i Hercegovina 244 MW Kosovo                      137 MW Crna Gora                 118 MW Sjeverna Makedonija 73 MW Slovenija                     3 MW  Republika Hrvatska je vodeća zemlja u regiji, koja je 2024. godinu završila s 14% svoje energije proizvedene iz energije vjetra, dok u Srbiji i Makedoniji to se kreće od 2 do 3%. Izgradnja nekih projekata vjetroelektrana može trajati i do dvadeset godina. Stoga je teško predvidjeti koliko će vjetroelektrana biti instalirano u Bosni i Hercegovini u skoroj budućnosti. NOSBiH (Nezavisni operator sistema u BiH) vodi registar bilansiranih korisnika. Podaci o vjetroparkovima preuzeti su sa zvaničnih web stranica NOSBiH-a. Na dan 25. novembra 2024. godine, u registru je navedeno 14 vjetroelektrana. Pet ih je već izgrađeno i potpuno operativno (Mesihovina, Jelovača, Podveležje, Ivovik, Ivan Sedlo), o kojima je već bilo riječi, dok je 9 projekata u različitim fazama izgradnje, čije su lokacije gore na slici označene plavim trokutovima.  Vjetroparkovi u procesu izgradnje u registru bilansiranih korisnika u Bosni i Hercegovini Vjetropark    Nominalna snaga Baljci                          48 MW Oštrc                        29,8 MW Grebak                       66 MW Tušnica                      72,6 MW Široka Draga            125,4 MW Dževa                          46 MW Planik                          36 MW Poklečani                  132 MW Škadimovac             110 MW Prema prikupljenim podacima ukupno je 909,4 MW vjetroelektrana upisano u registar bilansiranih korisnika. Od toga je 631,4 MW bilansirano.  U Bosni i Hercegovini se radi na instalaciji novih vjetroelektrana.Ovdje se treba napomenuti, da osim ovih vjetrelektrana prethodno navedenih postoje i projekti vjetroelektrana koji se duže vrijeme razvijaju a iz različitih razloga ne nalaze se u Registru. Naravno, proizvodnja energije iz termoelektrana će i dalje imati veoma značajan udio.Nezahvalno je precizno predvidjeti dinamiku izgradnje novih vjetroelektrana u Bosni i Hercegovini. Analizirajući trenutno stanje u Bosni i Hercegovini uključujući registar bilansiranih korisnika, relevantnu dokumentaciju, dozvole, ugovore o nabavci opreme (što je odnedavno postalo tržišni izazov), uslove na terenu i napredak gradnje, može se pouzdanije pretpostaviti da će Bosna i Hercegovina do kraja 2026. godine imati dodatno oko 66 MW instaliranih kapaciteta vjetrolektrana. Time bi se kapacitet povećao na gotovo 310 MW a proizvodnja bi se više nego udvostručila u odnosu na 2024.  Ovo je u skladu s usvojenim strateškim dokumentima Bosne i Hercegovine, iako, mora se reći, realizacija nije u potpunosti usklađena, na primjer sa sektorom solarne energije koji bilježi značajan rast.  Odgovori na neka pitanja Neka od mogućih pitanja mogu biti: Koliki je realni potencijal VE u BiH? Kakvi su planovi? Ko gradi? Imamo li dovoljno stručnog kadra za izgradnju i vođenje postrojenja? Kakva je godišnja dinamika? Kako se elektrane uklapaju u mrežu i sistem? Ko isporučuje opremu? Koliki je udio domaće opreme? Bosna i Hercegovina ima u pogonu 234,6 MW vjetroelektrana. U Registru bilansiranih korisnika Bosne i Hercegovine je 909,4 MW vjetroelektrana, sa napomenom da su procedure ulaska u registar i vođenje samog registra sa nedostacima. Stvarni potencijal je viši, prema nekim ranijim procjena oko 1 200 MW. Nezahvalno je praviti novu procjenu u neodgovornim uslovima upravljanja energijskom problematikom u Bosni i Hercegovini.   Očekuje se da će Bosna i Hercegovina u narednim godinama dodati nove kapacitete energije vjetra u svoj energetski portfolio. Preciznije i optimističnije projekcije dinamike izgradnje zavise i od pouzdanosti isporuke proizvođača opreme. U energetskom miksu, to bi moglo činiti dvoznamenkasti procenat godišnje proizvodnje električne energije iz energije vjetra. Iako napredak ide sporo, kreće se u pravcu ispunjavanja politika koje je postavila Evropska unija. Investitori u dosadašnje vjetroelektane u Bosni i Hercegovini su bile dvije domaće većinski državne elektroprivredne kompanije, jedna kompanija u privatnom vlasništvu iz BiH, zatim kompanije iz Slovenije i Kine.  U posljednjih nekoliko godina primjetna je stagnacija u istraživanju na ovom polju energije u BiH. U Bosni i Hercegovini se mogu organizovati grupe koje bi odgovorile zadatku projektovanja, izgradnje i vođenja vjetroelektrana. Različite analize i studije su urađene u cilju integracije vjetroelektrana u elektroenergetski sistem Bosne i Hercegovine. Instalisane vjetroturbine u Bosni i Hercegovini u četiri vjetroelektrane su od evropskih proizvođača, a u jednoj vjetroelektrani od kineskih proizvođača. Takođe je očigledno da Bosna i Hercegovina, pored postojećih prilika, ideja i planova, nije iskoristila svoje industrijske komparativne prednosti za uključivanje u proizvodnju komponenti vjetroturbina, te učestvuje u izgradnji vjetroelektrana uglavnom kroz građevinske radove. --------- Rad saopšten na sastanku Odbora za energiju, energetiku i okoliš Akademije nauka i umjetnosti BiH Srajevo, 29. april 2025.

Bosnia and Herzegovina - a candidate for membership in the European Union   Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has been a candidate for membership in the European Union (EU) since the end of 2022. In the coming period, BiH must, among other things, align its energy policy with that of the EU. The EU's climate and energy policy framework until 2030 includes EU-level targets for the period from 2021 to 2030. One of the key targets by 2030 is at least 42.5% of renewable energy sources. These targets are becoming even more important due to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine and all these developments that threaten to "vibrate" the Planet. Wind energy has been given an important role on this path to meeting the set goals.  The EU had 231 GW of installed wind capacity at the end of 2024. Over 90% of this was onshore wind farm. To meet its target of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55% compared to 1990 levels by 2030, the EU would need to add 36 GW of new wind capacity per year to reach the target of 425 GW. According to available data, the average capacity of new onshore wind turbines in 2024 was 4.6 MW, and for offshore wind turbines 10.1 MW. The capacity utilisation rate for onshore wind farms was 24%, the same as the previous year, while for offshore it was 34%.   In 2024, wind farms in the EU produced 475 TWh of electricity, accounting for 19% of total electricity demand; For comparison, in 2018, this share was 12%. The countries with a share of wind energy in their mix above 20% in 2024 were Denmark, Ireland, Sweden, Germany, as well as the Netherlands, Portugal, Lithuania, Spain, Finland and Greece. So, 10 out of 27 EU members.   Little blow a wind from the Neretva (name of Bosnian people song) Observations and measurements of wind characteristics in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been carried out for more than 130 years. Until 1992, wind characteristics were measured at about fifteen hydrometeorological stations, which were mostly located in urban areas of cities. The first measurements using adequate equipment and technology, with the aim of determining the wind energy potential at the location in question, began in 2002.  Energy generation from wind farms in BiH was analyzed through various segments. The possibility of manufacturing equipment for wind turbines was also analyzed (Soko, Energoinvest, Bratstvo - Travnik, Željezara Zenica, Metalno, UMEL, Vranica, etc.).  Various projects and research initiatives have been implemented (ImproImpex-COIE, faculties in Mostar, Sarajevo, Zenica, Tuzla, Banja Luka, FHMI). The most significant among them is the SEEWIND project, a research and demonstration project within the Framework Programme of the European Commission, with representatives/partners from six European countries. Current situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina  The first wind farm in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Mesihovina, was put into operation in 2018, followed by the Jelovača wind farm in early 2019, and the Podveležje wind farm in 2021. In late 2024 and early 2025, the Ivovik and Ivan Sedlo wind farms began operating. The following table shows the basic characteristics of the existing wind farms in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Wind Farm - Total Nominal Power and Turbine Type Mesihovina           50.6 MW (22 × Siemens SWT-2.3) Jelovača               36.0 MW (18 × Gamesa G97/2000) Podveležje            48.0 MW (15 × Siemens SWT-3.2) Ivovik                     84 MW (20 × Goldwind 4.2) Ivan Sedlo              25 MW (5 × Siemens Gamesa 5.0)  The image shows the locations of the constructed wind farms in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The total installed capacity is 243.6 MW. In the last four years, the share of wind energy in total electricity production in Bosnia and Herzegovina has ranged from 2 to 3%. Analyzing the production indicators (GWh/MW, kWh/m2, utilization coefficient, etc.) for the first three installed wind farms (Mesihovina, Jelovača, Podveležje), which have been in operation for four or more years, it can be concluded that they are operating in accordance with the designed values. Perspective According to WindEurope data, certain wind energy capacities have been installed in all countries of the former Yugoslavia. Since all these countries have the status of EU members, candidates or potential candidates, it is expected that these capacities will continue to increase, including in Bosnia and Herzegovina.  Wind farms in the countries of the former Yugoslavia at the end of 2024 Country          Installed capacity Croatia               1303 MW Serbia                 6323 MW Bosnia and Herzegovina 244 MW Kosovo                 137 MW Montenegro          118 MW North Macedonia    73 MW Slovenia                    3 MW  The Republic of Croatia is the leading country in the region, ending 2024 with 14% of its energy produced from wind energy, while in Serbia and Macedonia it ranges from 2 to 3%. The construction of some wind farm projects can take up to twenty years. Therefore, it is difficult to predict how many wind farms will be installed in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the near future. NOSBiH (Independent System Operator of Bosnia and Herzegovina) maintains a register of balanced users. Data on wind farms was taken from the official website of NOSBiH. As of November 25, 2024, 14 wind farms were listed in the register. Five of them have already been built and are fully operational (Mesihovina, Jelovača, Podveležje, Ivovik, Ivan Sedlo), which have already been discussed, while 9 projects are in various stages of construction, whose locations are marked with blue triangles in the image above. Wind farms in the process of construction in the register of balanced users in Bosnia and Herezegovina Wind farm Nominal power Baljka              48 MW Blade               29.8 MW Grebak              66 MW Tušnica             72.6 MW Široka Draga   125.4 MW Dževa                46 MW Planik                36 MW Kneeling          132 MW Skadimovac     110 MW   According to the collected data, a total of 909.4 MW of wind power plants are registered in the register of balanced users. Of that, 631.4 MW is balanced.  In Bosnia and Herzegovina, work is being done on the installation of new wind farms. It should be noted here that in addition to the previously mentioned wind farms, there are also wind farm projects that have been developing for a long time and for various reasons are not in the Register. Of course, energy production from thermal power plants will continue to have a very significant share. It is ungrateful to accurately predict the dynamics of the construction of new wind power plants in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Analyzing the current situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, including the register of balanced users, relevant documentation, permits, equipment procurement contracts (which has recently become a market challenge), field conditions and construction progress, it can be more reliably assumed that Bosnia and Herzegovina will have an additional 66 MW of installed wind power capacity by the end of 2026. This would increase capacity to almost 321.5 MW and production would more than double compared to 2024. This is in line with the adopted strategic documents of Bosnia and Herzegovina, although, it must be said, the implementation is not fully aligned, for example with the solar energy sector, which is recording significant growth.  Answers to some questions Some of the possible questions may be: What is the real potential of wind power in BiH? What are the plans? Who is building? Do we have enough professional staff to build and operate the plant? What is the annual dynamics? How do the power plants fit into the grid and system? Who supplies the equipment? What is the share of domestic equipment? Bosnia and Herzegovina has 234.6 MW of wind power plants in operation. The Register of Balanced Users of Bosnia and Herzegovina contains 909.4 MW of wind power plants, with the note that the procedures for entering the register and maintaining the register itself are flawed. The real potential is higher, according to some earlier estimates of around 1,200 MW. It is thankless to make a new estimate in the irresponsible conditions of energy management in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to add new wind power capacities to its energy portfolio in the coming years. More precise and optimistic projections of the construction dynamics also depend on the reliability of equipment manufacturers' deliveries. In the energy mix, this could account for a double-digit percentage of annual electricity production from wind energy. Although progress is slow, it is moving towards fulfilling the policies set by the European Union. Investors in the current wind farms in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been two domestic, mostly state-owned electricity companies, one privately owned company from Bosnia and Herzegovina, and companies from Slovenia and China. In the last few years, there has been a noticeable stagnation in research in this field of energy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Groups can be organized in Bosnia and Herzegovina that would respond to the task of designing, building and operating wind farms. Various analyses and studies have been conducted with the aim of integrating wind farms into the electricity system of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The installed wind turbines in Bosnia and Herzegovina in four wind farms are from European manufacturers, and in one wind farm from Chinese manufacturers. It is also obvious that Bosnia and Herzegovina, in addition to existing opportunities, ideas and plans, has not used its industrial comparative advantages to get involved in the production of wind turbine components, and participates in the construction of wind farms mainly through construction works. --------  Paper presented at the meeting of the Committee for Energy, Power Engineering and Environment of the Academy of Sciences and Arts of B&H, Sarajevo on April 29, 2025.