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Republika Srbija prolazi kroz turbulentan period svog
društvenopolitičkog razvoja. Nakon pada nadstrešnice na željezničkoj stanici
u Novom Sadu 1.novembra 2024. godine započeo je period intenzivnih
studentskih protesta i blokada rada visokoškolskih ustanova u Srbiji. Ne
odvija se nastava što je dovelo do sveopšte blokade rada univerziteta.
Specifičnost studentskih protesta je da nemaju prepoznatljive studentske
lidere nego se sve dešava sa određenom dozom društvene mimikrije, koja
upućuje na postojanje nekoga vodstva koje daljinski upravlja protestima. To
je dovelo do radoznalosti građana prema samim organizatorima protesta sa
pitanjem ko zaista stoji iza studentskih protesta u Srbiji. Studenti su to
pravdali nekim svojim razlozima kako bi navodno izbjegli eventualnu represiju
od strane vlasti, dok je na drugoj strani javnost u Srbiji započela
izražavati začuđenost čak i sumnju o stvarnim organizatorima protesta.
Potreba za
sveopštim društvenim dijalogom i dogovorom u Srbiji
Društvo u Srbiji je
prošlo kroz brojne tranzicione faze, od rata i sankcija, preko promjene
režima, do pokušaja dodatne demokratizacije. Dijalog predstavlja ključni
instrument za postizanje društvene kohezije, prevazilaženje polarizacija i
izgradnju održivih demokratskih institucija. Srbija se danas suočava s
dubokim političkim podjelama, erozijom povjerenja u institucije, tenzijama u
vezi sa identitetom, regionalnim pitanjima i evropskim integracijama, hitno
joj je potreban sveopšti društveni dijalog i dogovor.
Predsjednik Srbije Aleksandar Vučić (SNS) razumio je poruku studenata i potrebu za promjenama i
nedavno je pozvao „sve one
koji drugačije misle“ da na svim nivoima krenu da razgovaraju,
dogovaraju se i nađu što više zajedničkih imenitelja.
Analitičari smatraju, da je usprkos napetostima, ličnim animozitetima i
polarizaciji potrebno uspostaviti dijalog kako bi se postigao unutrašnji konsenzus
o ključnim pitanjima za budućnost države i izlazak iz postojeće situacije.
Politička pitanja treba rješavati na drugom mjestu, a na fakultetima odnosno
univerzitetima treba da se odvija nastava i stiče znanje. Trenutno optimalno
rješenje u postojećim okolnostima je odvijanje on line nastave gdje je to
moguće.
Opasne igre oko
Srbije
Srbija se nalazi u
složenoj i potencijalno opasnoj poziciji. U pitanju je klasična „geopolitička šahovska tabla“
gdje se velike sile nadmeću za uticaj, a lokalni akteri — kako vlast tako i
opozicija — koriste vanjskopolitičke teme za unutrašnju legitimaciju.
Opasnost dolazi iz mogućnosti pogrešnog koraka koji bi doveo do eskalacije,
bilo u vezi sa Kosovom, Bosnom i Hercegovinom ili međunarodnim
(re)pozicioniranjem. Obojena revolucija je počela dosta ranije sa ekonomskim
prosperitetom Srbije i pripremom tzv. spavača koji se aktiviraju kada to
zatreba. Ekonomsko osnaživanje Srbije ne odgovara jednom dijelu krugova na
Zapadu i na Istoku.
Srbija se nalazi pod pritiscima zbog nekoliko pitanja:
● pritisci Zapada
oko Kosova
● geopolitičko
p(r)ovlačenje Srbije između Istoka i Zapada ● Bosna i Hercegovina i Republika
Srpska
● vojne vježbe,
naoružavanje i obavještajne igre
● unutrašnji faktori
ranjivosti (studentski protesti).
Analitičari upozoravaju na pojačanu prisutnost stranih obavještajnih službi u
Srbiji kako ruskih, tako i zapadnih — s ciljem uticanja na javno mnijenje i
političke odluke. Rukopis pojedinih stranih obavještajnih službi prepoznat je
i kod organizacije studentskih protesta. Iako je Srbija prije nekoliko godina
doživjela upad u sigurnosno-obavještajni i odbrambeni sistem uspjela je
konsolidirati svoje službe, u međuvremenu su se pojavili novi izazovi koji
traže nove odgovore. Iskorištavanje trenutka kroz stvaranje trajnih
partnerstava u susjedstvu i povećano investiranje u prijateljstva u regionu
je put za budućnost Srbije.
Greške
opozicije u Srbiji
Greške
opozicije u Srbiji su višeslojne i uglavnom se ponavljaju kroz različite
cikluse i aktere. Iako opozicija u Srbiji ima pojedine realne argumente
protiv vlasti njena nesposobnost da ozbiljno ugrozi poziciju vlasti
proizilazi iz njenih unutrašnjih slabosti.
Najvažnije greške opozicije u Srbiji:
● hronična nejedinstvenost
(fragmentacija, lične sujete, nepovjerenje i saradnja sa vlastima)
● nedostatak jasne vizije (bez
stvarne alternative kako drugačije i bez novih lica)
● nejasna vanjska politika
● ekonomija i socijalna politika
bez dubinske analize i konkretnih rešenja
● Beograd-centrizam (ignoriranje
ostatka Srbije, nerazumijevanje konzervativnog biračkog tijela)
● slaba organizacija na terenu
(neaktivne lokalne strukture, nespremnost za vanredne izbore)
● zavisnost od vanjskog
legitimiteta (umjesto građenja domaće političke snage, opozicija traži
legitimitet izvana, što birači često doživljavaju kao slabost ili „rad za strane interese“
što većina birača ne prihvata)
● populizam bez utemeljenja
(igranje na emocije bez strategije, bojkoti bez efekta)
● gubitak povjerenja kod građana
(elitizam putem salonske demokratije, narativ „svi su isti“, jer građani smatraju da
opozicija ne nudi moralno i programski drugačiju alternativu).
Analitičari smatraju, da je krucijalna greška opozicije što su svu pažnju i
aktivnosti usmjerili na rušenje predsjednika Srbije Aleksandra Vučića, koji
je uvjerljivo najpopularniji političar u Srbiji pored svih izazova koje
Srbija ima na vanjskom i unutrašnjem planu i tzv. lični problem i čija se popularnost kreće
oko 60%, dok njegova Srpska napredna stranka (SNS) ima daleko niži rejting.
Opozicija nije ponudila druga rješenja što ne iznenađuje, jer su na čelu
opozicije uglavnom stari istrošeni političari već poznati građanima Srbije
bez novih lica. Studentski protesti su također usmjereni na Aleksandra Vučića
zajedno sa dijelom stranog faktora i doveli su do toga da je Vučićeva
pozicija stabilna, a uništena je opozicija. Tako su studentski protesti
uništili opoziciju, koja bi trebala vršiti nadzornu funkciju vlasti.
Opozicija je generalno protiv članstva Srbije u NATO-u, dok studentski
protesti nisu nikada javno podržali evropske integracije odnosno članstvo
Srbije u EU.
Kreditni
rejting, strane direktne investicije i EXPO 2027
Kreditni rejting,
strane direktne investicije (SDI) i EXPO 2027 predstavljaju ključne tačke na
kojima se gradi ekonomski narativ vlasti u Srbiji.
Srbija je ostvarila značajan napredak u makroekonomskoj stabilnosti, ali uz
stalnu napomenu o političkim rizicima, nezavisnosti institucija i
vanjsko-političkoj nepredvidivosti. Povećana je fiskalna disciplina, devizne
rezerve su stabilne, inflacija pod kontrolom, neophodne su reforme poreske
uprave i javnih finansija. Potrebno je poboljšati javna upravu i pravosuđe,
smanjiti zavisnost od nekoliko velikih investitora te raditi na unapređenju
razvoja domaće privrede i povećanju produktivnosti.
Srbija privlači najveći broj SDI na Zapadnom Balkanu oko šest milijardi eura
godišnje. Najviše investicija dolazi iz država EU, Kine, UAE i Turske. Dolazi
do otvaranja novih radnih mjesta, transfera tehnologija i pozicioniranja
Srbije kao „regionalnog
čvorišta“.
Potrebno je preispitati sistem subvencija, sistemski smanjivati low-cost
ekonomiju, raditi na unapređenju ekologije, strane investitore integrirati sa
domaćom ekonomijom i unaprijediti razvoj privatnog sektora i povećati njegovu
profitabilnost. Uvođenjem SEPA platnog naloga Srbija će u narednih 10 godina
ostvariti pola milijarde ušteda. Rezerve zlata su skoro 50 tona, što
predstavlja veliki uspjeh za Srbiju.
Specijalna međunarodna izložba EXPO 2027 predstavlja najveći ekonomski
odgađaj u modernoj historiji Srbije uz najavljeno učešće preko 14o država,
koja predstavlja razvojnu šansu za Srbiju ali i za region. Najavljeno je
ulaganje od 12 milijardi eura. EXPO 2027 je tematski fokusiran na „Igraj za
čovječanstvo: Sport i muzika za sve“ (Play
for Humanity: Sport and Music for All).
EXPO 2027 predstavlja veliki podsticaj građevinskom sektoru, promociji
Beograda, Srbije i regiona u globalnim okvirima i unapređenje infrastrukture
(putevi, željeznica, hoteli, metro…).
Ministar finansija Srbije Siniša Mali izjavio je: „EXPO
2027 je naša najveća razvojna šansa ikada. Očekujemo preko 3-4 miliona
posjetilaca. U Surčinu gradimo potpuno jedan novi mali grad. Kada sve
završimo, a završit ćemo na vrijeme i po planu, tek od 2027. nama se otvaraju
nove perspektive rasta i razvoja. Od 2028. otvaramo perspektive novog
investicionog plana“.
Srbija treba nastaviti sa institucionalnim reformama, transparentnom
upravljanju javnim novcem i implementacijom dugoročne strategije razvoja
zasnovane na znanju i inovacijama što će povećati prepoznavanost i
atraktivnost Srbije u širem međunarodnom prostoru.
Investicije UAE
dokaz povjerenja u stabilnost i razvojni potencijal Srbije
Investicije
Ujedinjenih Arapskih Emirata (UAE) u Srbiji predstavljaju snažan dokaz
povjerenja u stabilnost i razvojni potencijal zemalja poput Srbije. UAE kroz
strateške investicije doprinose ubrzanom ekonomskom rastu i jačanju
regionalne saradnje.
Srbija pod vodstvom predsednika Aleksandra Vučića predstavlja izvanredan
primjer uspješnog modela privlačenja stranih direktnih investicija i
transformacije ekonomije. Od 2014. godine, kada je Vučić izabran za
premijera, njegovo odlučno, vizionarsko i odgovorno liderstvo stvorilo je
stabilan, transparentan i poslovno prijateljski ambijent koji investitorima
pruža sigurnost i povjerenje.
Posebno je važno istaći duboko poštovanje i prijateljstvo koje postoji između
predsjednika Vučića i šejka Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyana, predsjednika UAE, što dodatno osnažuje bilateralne odnose i
otvara vrata za nove investicije i saradnju. Aleksandar Vučić uživa ugled i
poštovanje širom svijeta, što Srbiji donosi dodatnu sigurnost kao pouzdanom
partneru u globalnim ekonomskim tokovima.
Srbija je postala najatraktivnija destinacija za ulaganja u regionu, što
potvrđuju sve veće investicije iz UAE i drugih globalnih partnera. Ovaj
uspjeh jasno pokazuje koliko je važna jasna vizija, odgovorno rukovođenje i
sinergija između domaćih politika i međunarodnih investicija za ostvarenje održivog
ekonomskog razvoja i stabilnosti.
Kako Srbija
može da izađe iz postojeće situacije?
Srbija ima
potencijala da izađe iz postojeće situacije vođenjem strukturnog dijaloga
ključnih aktera u društvu i državi. Da bi Srbija izašla iz postojeće
situacije potrebno je raditi na:
● obnovi institucija
i vladavine prava (reforma pravosuđa, jačanje nezavisnih tijela,
profesionalizacija javne uprave)
● povećanju održivih
ekonomskih modela
● jačanju
vanjskopolitičkog pozicioniranja
● trajno rješavanje
otvorenih pitanja
● demokratizacija
medijskog prostora i
● kultura,
obrazovanje i društvene vrijednosti.
Vlada Srbije mora insistirati na reformskom kursu uz postizanje konsenzusa
oko nacionalne strategije razvoja uz učešće stručne javnosti, akademske
zajednice i civilnog društva u reformama. Srbija mora da izgradi unutrašnju
stabilnost, institucionalni integritet i ekonomski model zasnovan na znanju i
istraživanjima. To, prije svega, znači dubinsku i suštinsku promjenu sistema.
Predsjednik Srbije Aleksandar Vučić je u vezi parlamentarnih izbora izjavio:
„Oni (koji protestuju) su
pitali kada će biti izbora. Izbori će biti ili krajem iduće godine ili
početkom 2027. To je to. Imali smo izbore pre godinu dana i sada se
pripremamo za specijalizovani EXPO 2027“.
Analitičari smatraju, da je potrebno intenzivno raditi na članstvu Srbije u
EU čemu će doprinijeti otvaranje III. klastera pregovora sa EU, a Srbija ima
sve potencijale da ostane „motor“
evropskih integracija na Zapadnom Balkanu i da pregovore o članstvu sa EU
zaključi 2027.godine, koja predstavlja prelomnu godinu u modernom
društvenopolitičkom i ekonomskom razvoju Srbije. Zbog toga je potrebno
intenzivirati pomoć Srbiji da u što u kraćem vremenu bude primljena u EU uz
ispunjanje svih postavljenih zahtjeva i standarda EU.
IFIMES Ljubljana/Washington/Bruxelles/Beograd, 18. juni 2025
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The Republic of Serbia is undergoing a turbulent phase in its
socio-political development. The collapse of the canopy at the Novi Sad
railway station on 1 November 2024 marked the beginning of a wave of student
protests and the blockade of higher education institutions across the country.
Classes have been suspended, effectively leading to a complete shutdown of
universities. A distinctive feature of these protests is the absence of
recognisable student leaders; instead, everything unfolds with a certain
degree of social mimicry, suggesting the presence of a leadership structure
remotely coordinating the movement. This has sparked public curiosity about
who is truly behind the protests. Students have justified their anonymity by
citing fears of potential government reprisals. Meanwhile, the Serbian public
has grown increasingly perplexed, with some even expressing doubt about the
true forces driving the protests.
The need for
broad-based dialogue and social agreement in Serbia
Serbian
society has undergone numerous transitional phases—from war and sanctions, to
regime change and efforts toward deeper democratisation. Dialogue serves as a
critical instrument for achieving social cohesion, overcoming polarisation,
and building sustainable democratic institutions. Today, Serbia faces
profound political divisions, erosion of trust in institutions, tensions
related to identity, regional issues, and European integration. What the
country urgently needs is a comprehensive social dialogue and national
agreement.
President of Serbia Aleksandar
Vučić (SNS) has acknowledged the students’ message and the
need for change, and recently invited “all
those who think differently” to engage in dialogue at all levels,
negotiate and identify common ground wherever possible.
Analysts believe that, despite tensions, personal animosities, and
polarisation, establishing dialogue remains essential to achieving domestic
consensus on key issues affecting the nation's future and overcoming the
current situation. Political matters should be addressed elsewhere, while
universities and faculties must remain spaces for teaching and learning.
Under the current circumstances, online classes appear to be the most
practical solution wherever feasible.
Dangerous games
surrounding Serbia
Serbia
finds itself in a complex and potentially volatile position. This is a
classic case of the “geopolitical
chessboard” where major powers vie for influence, while local
actors—both government and opposition—leverage foreign policy issues to
bolster their domestic legitimacy. The danger lies in the possibility of a
misstep that could lead to escalation—whether over Kosovo, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, or Serbia’s international (re)positioning. The groundwork for a
so-called "colour
revolution" was laid much earlier, coinciding with Serbia’s
economic growth and the positioning of so-called “sleepers” ready to be activated when
needed. The country’s growing economic strength appears to be unwelcome in
certain circles—both in the West and the East.
Serbia is under pressure on several fronts:
● Western pressure
over Kosovo
● Geopolitical
tug-of-war between East and West
● Bosnia and
Herzegovina and Republika Srpska
● Military
exercises, arms buildup, and intelligence operations
● Internal
vulnerabilities (student protests).
Analysts warn of the growing presence of foreign intelligence agencies in
Serbia—both Russian and Western—aimed at influencing public opinion and
political decision-making. The involvement of certain foreign intelligence
agencies has also been identified in the organisation of student protests.
Although Serbia suffered a breach of its security, intelligence, and defence
systems several years ago, it has since managed to consolidate its services.
However, new challenges have since emerged that require new responses. Serbia’s
future depends on seizing the moment by forging lasting partnerships with
neighbouring countries and deepening strategic investments in regional
ties—laying the groundwork for long-term progress.
Mistakes of the opposition in Serbia
The mistakes of the
opposition in Serbia are multi-layered and mostly repeated through different
cycles and actors. Although the opposition in Serbia has some realistic
arguments against the government, its inability to seriously threaten the
government's position stems from its internal weaknesses.
The most important
mistakes of the opposition in Serbia:
● chronic disunity
(fragmentation, personal vanity, distrust and cooperation with the
authorities)
● lack of a clear
vision (no real alternative, how else and without new faces)
● unclear foreign
policy
● economy and social
policy without in-depth analysis and concrete solutions
● Belgrade-centrism
(ignoring the rest of Serbia, misunderstanding of the conservative
electorate)
● weak organization
on the ground (inactive local structures, unpreparedness for early elections)
● dependence on
external legitimacy (instead of building domestic political power, the
opposition seeks legitimacy from outside, which voters often perceive as
weakness or "working for foreign interests", which most voters do
not accept)
● populism without
foundation (playing on emotions without a strategy, boycotts without effect)
● loss of trust among citizens (elitism through salon democracy, the
narrative "everyone is the same", because citizens believe that the
opposition does not offer a morally and programmatically different
alternative).
Analysts believe
that the crucial mistake of the opposition is that they focused all their
attention and activities on the overthrow of Serbian President Aleksandar
Vučić, who is arguably the most popular politician in Serbia, despite all the
challenges that Serbia faces on the external and internal fronts and the
so-called personal problem and whose popularity is around 60%, while his
Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has a much lower rating. The opposition did
not offer other solutions, which is not surprising, because the opposition is
mostly led by old, worn-out politicians already known to the citizens of
Serbia, without any new faces. The student protests are also aimed at
Aleksandar Vučić, along with part of the foreign factor, and have led to the
fact that Vučić's position is stable, and the opposition has been destroyed.
Thus, the student protests have destroyed the opposition, which should
perform the supervisory function of the government. The opposition is
generally against Serbia's membership in NATO, while the student protests
have never publicly supported European integration or Serbia's membership in
the EU.
Credit rating,
foreign direct investment, and EXPO 2027
Credit
rating, foreign direct investment (FDI), and the upcoming EXPO 2027 form the
core pillars of the Serbian government’s economic narrative.
The country has achieved notable progress in macroeconomic stability, albeit
amid ongoing concerns about political risks, institutional independence, and
the unpredictability of its foreign policy. Fiscal discipline has improved,
foreign currency reserves are stable, and inflation is under control, but
reforms in tax administration and public finances remain necessary. Improving
public administration and the judiciary, reducing reliance on a handful of
major investors, and boosting domestic economic development and productivity are
all critical next steps.
Serbia attracts more foreign direct investment than any other country in the
Western Balkans, drawing around six billion euros annually. Most investments
come from EU member states, China, the UAE, and Turkey. This inflow has contributed
to job creation, technology transfers, and Serbia’s positioning as a regional
hub.
There is a need to review the subsidy system, systematically move away from a
low-cost economic model, improve environmental standards, more effectively
integrate foreign investors with the domestic economy, and enhance the
development and profitability of the private sector. With the introduction of
SEPA payment orders, Serbia is expected to generate savings of half a billion
euros over the next decade. Gold reserves currently stand at nearly 50
tonnes, representing a major success for Serbia.
The specialised international exhibition EXPO 2027 is set to be the largest
economic event in Serbia’s modern history, with participation from over 140
countries already confirmed. It represents a development opportunity not only
for Serbia but for the wider region as well. Planned investments amount
to 12 billion euros. The official theme of EXPO 2027 is “Play for Humanity: Sport and Music
for All.”
EXPO 2027 is expected to provide a major boost to the construction sector,
raise the international profile of Belgrade, Serbia, and the region on the
global stage, and drive significant infrastructure improvements, including
roads, railways, hotels, and the metro system.
Serbia’s Minister of Finance, Siniša
Mali, stated: “EXPO
2027 is our greatest development opportunity ever. We expect over 3 to 4
million visitors. In Surčin, we are building an entirely new small city. Once
everything is completed—and it will be completed on time and according to
plan—new prospects for growth and development will open up for us starting in
2027. From 2028 onward, we will move forward with a new investment plan.”
Serbia needs to continue with institutional reforms, ensure transparent
management of public funds, and implement a long-term development strategy
based on knowledge and innovation, which will enhance the country’s
visibility and attractiveness in the broader international arena.
UAE investments
signal confidence in Serbia’s stability and development potential
The
United Arab Emirates’ investments in Serbia stand as a strong sign of trust
in the stability and growth potential of countries like Serbia. Through
strategic investments, the UAE contributes to accelerated economic growth and
the strengthening of regional cooperation.
Under the leadership of President Aleksandar Vučić, Serbia stands out as a
leading example of a successful model for attracting foreign direct
investment that drives economic transformation. Since Vučić assumed the role
of Prime Minister in 2014, his decisive, visionary, and responsible
leadership has helped create a stable, transparent, and business-friendly
environment that inspires confidence among international partners.
It is worth highlighting the deep mutual respect and friendship between
President Vučić and Sheikh
Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE, which
further reinforces bilateral relations and creates new opportunities for
investment and cooperation. Aleksandar Vučić enjoys recognition and respect
worldwide, which strengthens Serbia’s position as a trusted partner in global
economic affairs.
Serbia has emerged as an attractive investment destination in the region, as
evidenced by growing investments from the UAE and other global partners. This
success clearly demonstrates the importance of a clear vision, responsible
governance, and synergy between domestic policies and international
investments in achieving sustainable economic development and stability.
How can Serbia
overcome the current situation?
Serbia
has the potential to move beyond the current situation by fostering
structured dialogue involving key actors in society and the state. To
successfully emerge from this period, Serbia must focus on:
● restoring
institutions and the rule of law (judicial reform, strengthening of
independent bodies, professionalising public administration)
● advancing
sustainable economic models
● strengthening
foreign policy positioning
● resolving
outstanding issues on a lasting basis
● democratising the
media landscape
● promoting culture,
education, and social values.
The Government of Serbia must remain firmly on the reform path while building
consensus around a national development strategy, with the active
participation of experts, academia, and civil society in the reform process.
Serbia needs to establish internal stability, institutional integrity, and an
economic model based on knowledge and research. Above all, this implies a
deep and fundamental transformation of the system.
Commenting on the timing of the next parliamentary elections, President
Aleksandar Vučić stated: “They
[the protesters] asked when the elections would be held. The elections will
take place either at the end of next year or at the beginning of 2027. That’s
it. We had elections just a year ago, and now we are preparing for the
Specialised Expo 2027.”
Analysts argue that Serbia must step up its efforts toward EU membership,
with the opening of Cluster III in the accession negotiations expected to
support that process. Serbia has all the potential to remain the driving
force of European integration in the Western Balkans and to conclude
accession negotiations with the EU in 2027—a year that represents a turning
point in Serbia’s modern socio-political and economic development. Therefore,
intensified support is needed to facilitate Serbia’s EU accession within the
shortest possible timeframe, provided all EU requirements and standards are
met.
IFIMES
Ljubljana/Washington/Bruxelles/Belgrade, 19 June 2025
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