INTERNACIONALNI 

 PRITISCI

 I OTPOR MODERNE

BOSANSKE DRŽAVE

 

INTERNATIONAL 

 PRESSURES

AND RESISTANCE OF

THE MODERN BOSNIAN STATE


POLARIZACIJA GEOPOLITIČKIH SILNICA

Tokom ljetne pauze u djelovanju Kruga 99 čini se da je na internacionalnom, svjetskom nivou, došlo do dalje polarizacije geopolitičkih silnica, produbljavanja strateških sukoba i zaoštravanja oružanih konflikata,  te rasta globalne političke neizvjesnosti i gubitka pouzdanih oslonaca  u tradicionalnim uporištima izgradnje i održanja stabilnog  internacionalnog poretka. Na unutrašnjem planu udar na ustavni poredak i sprečavanje demokratskog razvoj bosanske države ne jenjava već poprima nove forme djelovanja i stičepodršku kako od neliberalnih, autokratskih i ekspanzionističkih država tako i militantnih desničarskih i neonacističkih snaga i ideologija krvi i tla.

To je i razlog da u ova burna vremena počnemo sa sesijom koja bi mogla pregnantnije ocrtati rastuće Internacionalne pritiske, ali i pravceotpora moderne bosanske države. Naši uvodničari su Ademir Lisica, doktorant na Fakultetu političkih nauka Sarajevo i Fuad Đidić, diplomata i publicista, član Kruga 99. Dužan sam da im se zahvalim na spremnosti da se suoče sa ovom teškom i nadasve važnom temom za mir i demokratsku budućnost i slobodan razvoj naše države i društva.

Svakako da je od izuzetne važnosti trud pojedinaca iz različitih generacija da se bave internacionalnim odnosima i intencijama u savremenom svijetu čije refleksije  će se u najvećoj mjeri odraziti na male zemlje, a posebno one poput naše, čiji je sam poredak konstruisan da proizvodi permanentni unutrašnji konflikt i nestabilnost. Nedostatak razvijene naučno istraživačkih institucija akademskog renomea neće nas opravdati pred odgovornošću za predstojeća vremena, za sljepilo pred opasnostima sa kojima se suočavamo i sa kojima  ćemo se neminovno suočavati, za postupke onih koji će olako pokleknuti pred priticima sa teškim i dalekosežnim posljedicama za demokratski razvoj i perspektivu slobodne bosanske države.  Potpuno je svejedno da li zbog neznanja, oportunizma ili partikularnih stranačkih interesa.

 U izlaganjima ćemo dobiti širu sliku procesa i namjera koji se već ocrtavaju u projekcijama pojedinih internacionalnih centara moći prema našoj zemlji. Između svih aktuelnih Scila i Haribdi  naš odgovor se mora sa najvećom državničkom odgovornošću jasno profilirati.

Nama se čini da je jačanje sigurnosnog samopouzdanja i organizovanosti prvorazredni zadatak svih struktura društva. U svijetu real politike koja nikada ne uzima u obzir moralna načela, pravdu i pravičnost,  raspoloživa sila otpora jeste ključna činjenica. Aktivnosti nekih kantona u tom pravcu daju već prve rezultate na podizanju svijesti i samopouzdanja stanovništva. One moraju biti još vidljivije, obimnije i transparentnije. Odbijanje da se u državni budžet stave predložena minimalna sredstva za odbranu samo su lakmus papir stvarnih namjera kvislinške politike u samoj zemlji. Bijela knjiga Kruga 99 o sigurnosti naš je prilog tome. I koji nije naišao na konstruktivno reagovanje najvećeg broja odgovornih političkih struktura.

Drugo, naš otpor mora imati jasnu viziju moderne bosanske evropske države bez obzira na unutrašnje otpore i njihove inostrane saveznike, pa i stoljetnu istoriju stranputica i prepreka ka tom cilju. Vizije o tome čemu težimo, sukladne standardima demokratskog svijeta,  nisu puki spisak želja već materijalna snaga i štit pred nastajima internacionalnih pritisaka suprotnih interesima slobodne bosanske države i svakog njenog građanina. Nacrt reforme Ustava na građanskim demokratskim vrijednostima i principima naš je prilog profiliranja tog segmenta bosanskog otpora, kojeg ćemo uskoro predstaviti u formi Prijedloga javnosti i državotvornim političkim snagama. Svi državotvorni građani, članovi političkih stranaka i političke strukture moraju shvatiti i prihvatiti da su ponude konsocijalne demokracije i federalizacije podmukla zamka za nestanak našeg jedinog doma i domovine, moderne bosanske države i slobodne nacije ravnopravnih ljudi.

I treće, u politici nema vječnih prijatelja niti vječnih saveznika. Nove historijske okolnosti traže novi pristup političkim pa i vojnim savezništvima u realpolitičkom kapacitetu. Obaveza je svakog građanina, bio u zemlji ili van nje,  svih struktura društva i odgovornih institucija, državotvorno zagovaranje i razvijanje prijateljskih savezništava. Takva disperzija diplomatskog djelovanja, bez urušavanja kredibiliteta državnih institucija, pouzdano može donijeti toliko potreban rezultat. I otkloniti narasle predrasude, nepovjerenja i zamke koje se pletu oko Bosne i Hercegovine.

         Adil Kulenović, Predsjednik Kruga 99

 

ZNAČAJ GEOGRAFSKOG POLOŽAJA

BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE

Geografski položaj Bosne i Hercegovine u velikoj mjeri je zaslužan za kontinuirane vanjske pritiske. O geopolitici Bosne i Hercegovine i njenom izazovnom položaju, pisao je još osamdesetih godina prošlog stoljeća Kasim Suljević, koji je ukazivao na kompliciranost geopolitičkog položaja Bosne i Hercegovine. Razlog potonjem jeste što su dvije susjedne teritorijale pretenzije od strane Srbije i Hrvatske u velikoj mjeri usložnile društveno-političke procese unutar Bosne i Hercegovine. Teritorijalne aspiracije, prije svega Srbije, još od 19. stoljeća predstavljaju kamen spoticanja u kontekstu razvoja dijaloga i jačanja međusobne saradnje.

Koliko su teritorijalne pretenzije opasne, svjedočili smo devedesetih godina tokom srpsko-hrvatsko-crnogorske oružane agresije na nezavisnu državu Bosnu i Hercegovinu. Perpetuiranje Srbije da izgradi svoju poziciju hegemona na prostru Zapadnog Balkana, u koliziji je sa izgradnjom dobrosusjedskih odnosa i regionalne saradnje koja se nameće kao nužan korak u smjeru pridruživanja cjelokupne regije Evropskoj uniji. Svjesna je toga i Srbija, koja ipak ne odustaje od kontinuiranih pritisaka i napada na državnost i nezavisnost Bosne i Hercegovine.

Hrvatska s druge strane nastoji da propagiranje modela političke kontrole nad jedinim dijelom Bosne i Hercegovine, kontinuirano vrši pritisak na državu, nastojeći da proklamira vlastite ideje na teritoriji druge međunarodno priznate države. Jasno je da teritorijalne pretenzije Hrvatske i Srbije prema Bosni i Hercgovini neće prestati sve dok ona ne bude dio NATO članstva. Politički pritisci i ugrožavanje državnosti, sigurno je da će biti prisutni i kada bi Bosna i Hercegovina postala punopravna članica NATO saveza, a ovu tezu potvrđuje slučaj Crne Gore, u čiju se unutrašnju i vanjsku politiku kontinuirano miješa susjedna Srbija.

Različiti vanjski faktori vrše direktni ili indirektni pritisak na bosansku državu, posebno u posljednjih nekoliko godina, kada je intenzirviran rast desni politika unutar Evropske unije. Osim potonjih vanjskih faktora koji  vrše kontinuiran pritisak na Bosnu i Hercegovinu, vidljivi su i novi akteri koji imaju imperativ da prošire svoj geopolitički utjecaj i na ovaj prostor. Prije svega tu je Mađarska, koja svojim destruktivnim akcijama narušila odnose sa Bosnom i Hercegovinom u prethodnom periodu, ali i Izrael, čije aktivnosti nisu bezazlene, niti minorne.

Ono što otežava poziciju Bosne i Hercegovine jeste sprega i nezvanično političko savezništvo osovine Srbija-Izrael-Mađarska, te Izrael i Hrvatska. Podržavanjem separatistčkih intencija Dodikovih Srba, Mađarska, Izrael, Srbija i Hrvatska, vrše kontinuiran pritisak, koji komplicira unutrašnje funkcioniranje države Bosne i Hercegovine. Balkan je geopolitički veoma interesantan raznim vanjskim akterima, koji kroz prisustvo na Balkanu nastoje pozicionirati sebe kao geopolitički važan faktor.

Prisustvo zapadnih i istočnih država kroz promociju soft-power modela, nije ništa novo, jer postoje zapisi o raznim konzulima koji su još u vrijeme osmanskog doba imali određene interese na ovim prostorima. Izrael je poprilično novi igrač, koji razvija prisnu saradnju sa Beogradom i Zagrebom, te sa političkim predstavnicima bosanskih Srba i bosanskih Hrvata unutar Bosne i Hercegovine. Izrael na Balkanu za jednog od većih rivala smatra Tursku, te stoga postoji mogućnost da se u određenim segmentima njihovi interesi poprilično sudare. Ono što je primijetno u regionu jeste kontinuirano naoružavanje Srbije i Hrvatske, te česti vojni manevri i parade, a naredna je 20. septembra u Srbiji.

S druge strane, države poput Kosova, Albanije i Hrvatske, propagiraju određene vojne saveze, što Srbija smatra prijetnjom. Uslijed ovakvog raspleta događaja, te jasnog usmjerenja regije, Bosna i Hercegovina mora kroz svoj otpor, ponuditi akcije koje će kreirati balans. Uslijed trenutnog razvoja okolnosti Slovenija se ukazuje kao potencijalni partner s kojim Bosna i Hercegovina treba razvijati odnose, kao što je slučaj i sa Crnom Gorom, Sjevernom Makedonijom i Kosovom. Jedan od načina odgovora može sadržavati određene političke aktivnosti koje će prije svega ojačati vojne kapacitete Bosne i Hercegovine, FBiH i Kantona.

Diversifikacija vanjske politike se nameće kao potencijal, koji Bosna i Hercegovina ne koristi. Otpor može biti sadržan i u akcijama političkog osnaživanja bošnjačkog naroda u regionu, koji će maskimilizirati svoje zahtjeve, te kreirati jedan vid odbrane Bosne i Hercegovine, izvan njenih granica, ali i također približavanje Bosne i Hercegovine regionalnim partnerima koji su dopronamjerni. Shodno tome, na svako zastupanje ideje o konsocijaciji, mora biti odgovoreno recipročnim idejama, te bilo kakve intencije o podjeli Bosne i Hercegovini odbiti.

                                                     Admir Lisica, doktorant

na Fakultetu političkih nauka Sarajevo

 

DVIJE OPREČNE DOKTRINE

Bosna i Hercegovina je poprište sukoba dvije dijametralno oprečne doktrine. Doktrina  „ruskog sveta“ogorčeno se hrve se doktrinom „stabilokratije“ koju zagovara Zapad. Na jednoj strani nalazi se Rusija i Srbija, odnosno osovina „MBB“. (Moskva, Beograd, Banjaluka) dok, na drugoj dijametralnoj oprečnoj nalazi se Britanija, Njemačka,Italija i dijelom Turska.

 Budućnost ove zemlje u optici zapadne doktrine sagledava se kroz očuvanje „konstitutivnosti“, „dogovora naroda“ „koncesija“ dok, se budućnost ove zemlje u doktrini „ruskog sveta“ sagledava kroz stalno „političko pokroviteljstvo“ „predominaciju pravoslavnog pola“„okončanje zapadne dominacije“ kako je tragom filozofije Aleksandra Dugina najavio Lavrov u Moskvi.

Rusija svoju diplomatiju prema Bosni zasniva u suštini na strahu, „samo ako nas se bojite možete biti dobri sa nama“ dok, Zapad svoju diplomatiju zasniva na očuvanju balansa putem vojnih jedinica EUFORA i Kancelarije Visokog predstavnika.

Uprotekla dva ljetna mjeseca, julu i augustu, dobili smo tri diplomatske Inicijative za Balkan. Autori ovih Inicijativa bili su Turska, Italija, Britanija odnosno, Njemačka. To je pokazatelj da ova regija ostaje ključna arena za evropsku sigurnost i političku stabilnost.

Turska je 27 jula 2025 ponudila svoju „Balkansku Mirovnu Platformu“, potom je nekoliko dana kasnije Georgie Meloni, Premijerka Italije i blizak saradnik Trumpa,  ponudila u Beogradu 5. augusta 2025. svoju Inicijativu o „Ponovnog ujedinjenja Balkana“.

U drugoj sedmici augusta stigla je i Inicijativa „Berlinskog Procesa“ kojim ove godine predsjedava Britanija. Iz Londona je potvrđeno da Britanija kao predsjedavajući „Berlinskog Procesa“ organizuje veliku Konferenciju o BiH i Zapadnom Balkanu u Belfastu, Irska na dan 8 oktobar 2025. Ovom prilikom najavljeno je prisusto čak 15 zemlja Europe. Konferencijom će predsjedavati Britanski državni sekretar D.Lammy, a najavljeno je i prisustvo nekoliko  važnih diplomata iz Kabineta PM. Kier Starmera.

I pored nekih nagađanja da će Britanija ponudi model „konsocijacije“ za BiH što u prevodu znači prelazak prema trećem entitetu, po uzoru na mirovni sporazum zaraćenih frakcija u Sj.Irskoj iz 1998. god mi ipak, očekujemo da Britanija ponuditi novu i hrabru viziju moderne BiH. Za ova očekivanja imamo osnova u izjavi Britanskog ambasadora u Sarajevu koji je početkomove godine u razgovoru sa Markom Zelićem, zamjenikom gradonačelnika Bugojna izjavio: „konstitutivnih naroda u BiH jednoga dana neće biti" jer je to "element kojeg se BiH mora odreći" na putu prema članstvu u Evropskoj uniji što je "šokiralo" Miroslava Zelića iz HDZBiH.

 Skandalozna konferencija za štampu Lavrova i Dodika u Moskvi od 9 septembra bila je u funkciji diplomatskog udara na BiH i, udara na pomenute Inicijative Turske, Italije, Britanije i Njemačke i pored činjenice da se Turska ogradila u svojoj Platformi da ne želi biti „protivteža Rusiji na Balkanu“ niti alternativa Americi i EU“.

Prvi puta Lavrov je Bošnjake prozivao kao „muslimane“ i, tako je ovaj diplomata svjetskog ranga, prihvatio Dodikov militantni vokabular, a Federaciju BiH je nazvao „muslimansko-hrvatska federacija“ u trenutku dok je Dodik u njegovom prisustvu zatražio „treći entitet za Hrvate“. Lavrov je na ovoj konferenciji o Bosni i Hercegovini prešao „psihološki rubikon“.

On je po prvi puta optužio Brisel da radi protiv „Ortodoksno-pravoslavnog svijeta“...Također, Lavrov je po prvi put govorio o europskom „anti-slavenstvu“. Ovo je bio presedan. To je vrlo jasna poruka: ispod Daytonskog Sporazuma, kao pukog pokrića Rusija ruši  unipolarni svijet i preko naših leđa predstavlja novi – multipolarni svijet i,šalje nam poruku uduhu filozofije A.Duginao toj „novoj realnosti“ svijeta.

Ministar Lavrov je drugačijim narativom zapravo,rekao da budućnostove zemlje vidi kroz politikudalje eskalacije krize, „političkog pravoslavlja“ i, zbog toga on odbacuje sve diplomatske Platforme, Inicijative ili, Konferencije o multilaterlanim rješenjima.

Zaključak

Između ove dvije doktrine koje se ogorčeno bore preko leđa ovog naroda Krug 99 nudi nova rješenja. Mi nudimo Model Bosne i Hercegovine zasnovane na europskim standardima, na implementiranim presudama Europskog suda za ljudska prava.

Mi smo to zapisali u našem krunskom dokumentu „Bijeloj Knjizi o sigurnosti“ kao i u Prijedlogu nacrta Novog Ustava Bosne i Hercegovine kojeg ćemo saopštiti javnosti vrlo brzo.

Krug 99 poziva sve građane da kritički sagledaju sadržaj obje doktrine koje se zasnivaju bilo na „ruskom strahu“ ili,  na „propalim vjerovanjima“ Zapada o „dogovoru naroda“.

Naša, moderna BiH, sa evropskim standardima je jedini izlaz iz ovog stanja beznađa i apatije.

                          Fuad Đidić, diplomatai publicista

                                        Sarajevo, 14.9.2025

 

 

 

 


POLARIZATION OF GEOPOLITICAL FORCES

During the summer break in the activities of Circle 99, it seems that at the international, world level, there has been a further polarization of geopolitical forces, deepening strategic conflicts and aggravation of armed conflicts, as well as the growth of global political uncertainty and the loss of reliable supports in the traditional strongholds of building and maintaining a stable international order. On the internal level, the attack on the constitutional order and the prevention of the democratic development of the Bosnian state does not subside, but takes on new forms of action and gains support from both illiberal, autocratic and expansionist states as well as militant right-wing and neo-Nazi forces and ideologies of blood and soil.

This is also the reason that in these turbulent times we begin with a session that could more clearly outline the growing international pressures, but also the directions of resistance of the modern Bosnian state. Our presenters are Ademir Lisica, PhD student at the Faculty of Political Sciences Sarajevo and

Fuad Đidić, diplomat and publicist, member of Circle 99. I am obliged to thank them for their willingness to face this difficult and above all important topic for the peace and democratic future and free development of our state and society.

It is certainly of utmost importance that individuals from different generations engage in international relations and intentions in the contemporary world, the reflections of which will be most reflected on small countries, especially those like ours, whose very order is constructed to produce permanent internal conflict and instability. The lack of developed scientific research institutions of academic renown will not excuse us from responsibility for the coming times, for blindness to the dangers we face and will inevitably face, for the actions of those who will easily succumb to pressures with severe and far-reaching consequences for democratic development and the prospects of a free Bosnian state. It is completely irrelevant whether it is due to ignorance, opportunism or particular party interests.

In the presentations, we will get a broader picture of the processes and intentions that are already outlined in the projections of certain international centers of power towards our country. Among all the current Scylla and Charybdis, our response must be clearly profiled with the greatest statesmanlike responsibility.

It seems to us that strengthening security self-confidence and organization is a primary task of all structures of society. In the world of realpolitik that never takes into account moral principles, justice and fairness, the available force of resistance is a key fact. The activities of some cantons in this direction are already yielding the first results in raising the awareness and self-confidence of the population. They must be even more visible, more extensive and more transparent. The refusal to include the proposed minimum funds for defense in the state budget is only a litmus test of the real intentions of quisling politics in the country itself. The White Paper of Circle 99 on security is our contribution to this. And which has not met with a constructive reaction from the majority of responsible political structures.

Second, our resistance must have a clear vision of a modern Bosnian European state, regardless of internal resistance and their foreign allies, as well as the centuries-old history of detours and obstacles to that goal. The visions of what we strive for, in accordance with the standards of the democratic world, are not just a wish list, but material strength and a shield against the emergence of international pressures that are contrary to the interests of the free Bosnian state and each of its citizens. The draft reform of the Constitution based on civic democratic values ​​and principles is our contribution to the profiling of that segment of the Bosnian resistance, which we will soon present in the form of a proposal to the public and state-building political forces. All state-building citizens, members of political parties and political structures must understand and accept that the offers of consociational democracy and federalization are an insidious trap for the disappearance of our only home and homeland, the modern Bosnian state and a free nation of equal people.

And thirdly, there are no eternal friends or eternal allies in politics. New historical circumstances require a new approach to political and even military alliances in a realpolitik capacity. It is the obligation of every citizen, whether in the country or abroad, of all structures of society and responsible institutions, to advocate for state-building and develop friendly alliances. Such a dispersion of diplomatic action, without undermining the credibility of state institutions, can reliably bring the much-needed result. And eliminate the growing prejudices, distrust and traps that are woven around Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

Adil Kulenović, President of Circle 99

  THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE GEOGRAPHICAL POSITION

OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

 The geographical position of Bosnia and Herzegovina is largely due to continuous external pressures. Kasim Suljević wrote about the geopolitics of Bosnia and Herzegovina and its challenging position back in the 1980s, pointing out the complexity of the geopolitical position of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The reason for the latter is that the two neighboring territorial claims of Serbia and Croatia have greatly complicated the socio-political processes within Bosnia and Herzegovina. Territorial aspirations, primarily those of Serbia, have been a stumbling block in the context of developing dialogue and strengthening mutual cooperation since the 19th century.

 We witnessed how dangerous territorial claims are in the 1990s during the Serbian-Croatian-Montenegrin armed aggression against the independent state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia's continued efforts to build its hegemonic position in the Western Balkans are in conflict with the development of good neighborly relations and regional cooperation, which is a necessary step towards the entire region joining the European Union. Serbia is aware of this, and it is not giving up on the continuous pressure and attacks on the statehood and independence of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Croatia, on the other hand, is trying to propagate a model of political control over the only part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, continuously exerting pressure on the state, trying to proclaim its own ideas on the territory of another internationally recognized state. It is clear that the territorial claims of Croatia and Serbia towards Bosnia and Herzegovina will not cease until it becomes a part of NATO membership. Political pressures and threats to statehood will certainly be present even if Bosnia and Herzegovina becomes a full member of NATO, and this thesis is confirmed by the case of Montenegro, whose domestic and foreign policy is continuously interfered in by neighboring Serbia.

Various external factors exert direct or indirect pressure on the Bosnian state, especially in the last few years, when the growth of right-wing politics within the European Union has intensified. In addition to the latter external factors that exert continuous pressure on Bosnia and Herzegovina, new actors are also visible who have the imperative to expand their geopolitical influence to this area. First of all, there is Hungary, which has damaged relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina with its destructive actions in the previous period, but also Israel, whose activities are not harmless or minor.

What complicates the position of Bosnia and Herzegovina is the connection and unofficial political alliance of the Serbia-Israel-Hungary axis, and Israel and Croatia. By supporting the separatist intentions of Dodik's Serbs, Hungary, Israel, Serbia and Croatia exert continuous pressure, which complicates the internal functioning of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Balkans are geopolitically very interesting to various external actors, who through their presence in the Balkans are trying to position themselves as a geopolitically important factor.

The presence of Western and Eastern countries through the promotion of the soft-power model is nothing new, as there are records of various consuls who had certain interests in this region even during the Ottoman era. Israel is a relatively new player, developing close cooperation with Belgrade and Zagreb, and with political representatives of Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats within Bosnia and Herzegovina. Israel considers Turkey to be one of its major rivals in the Balkans, and therefore there is a possibility that their interests will clash quite a bit in certain segments. What is noticeable in the region is the continuous arming of Serbia and Croatia, and frequent military maneuvers and parades, the next one being on September 20 in Serbia.

On the other hand, countries such as Kosovo, Albania and Croatia are promoting certain military alliances, which Serbia considers a threat. Due to this unfolding of events and the clear direction of the region, Bosnia and Herzegovina must, through its resistance, offer actions that will create a balance. Due to the current development of circumstances, Slovenia is emerging as a potential partner with which Bosnia and Herzegovina should develop relations, as is the case with Montenegro, North Macedonia and Kosovo. One way to respond may include certain political activities that will primarily strengthen the military capacities of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the FBiH and the Canton.

Diversification of foreign policy is imposed as a potential that Bosnia and Herzegovina is not using. Resistance may also be contained in actions of political empowerment of the Bosniak people in the region, which will maximize their demands and create a form of defense of Bosnia and Herzegovina, outside its borders, but also bring Bosnia and Herzegovina closer to regional partners who are sympathetic. Accordingly, any advocacy of the idea of ​​consociation must be responded to with reciprocal ideas, and any intentions to divide Bosnia and Herzegovina must be rejected.

                                                 Admir Lisica, PhD student 

                            at the Faculty of Political Sciences, Sarajevo

 

TWO OPPOSING DOCTRINES 

Bosnia and Herzegovina is the scene of a conflict between two diametrically opposed doctrines. The doctrine of the "Russian world" bitterly fights with the doctrine of "stabilocracy" advocated by the West. On one side are Russia and Serbia, or the "MBB" axis. (Moscow, Belgrade, Banja Luka) while on the other diametrically opposed side are Britain, Germany, Italy and partly Turkey.

The future of this country in the perspective of the Western doctrine is seen through the preservation of "constituency", "agreement of the people" "concessions" while, the future of this country in the doctrine of the "Russian world" is seen through constant "political patronage" "predominance of the Orthodox sex" "end of Western domination" as Lavrov announced in Moscow, following the philosophy of Alexander Dugin.

Russia bases its diplomacy towards Bosnia essentially on fear, “only if you fear us can you be good to us”, while the West bases its diplomacy on maintaining balance through the military units of EUFOR and the Office of the High Representative.

In the past two summer months, July and August, we received three diplomatic Initiatives for the Balkans. The authors of these Initiatives were Turkey, Italy, Britain and Germany respectively. This is an indicator that this region remains a key arena for European security and political stability.

 On July 27, 2025, Turkey offered its “Balkan Peace Platform”, then a few days later Georgie Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy and close associate of Trump, offered in Belgrade on August 5, 2025 her Initiative on “Reunification of the Balkans”.

In the second week of August, the “Berlin Process” Initiative, chaired this year by Britain, also arrived. It has been confirmed from London that Britain, as the chairman of the "Berlin Process", is organizing a major Conference on Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Western Balkans in Belfast, Ireland on October 8, 2025. On this occasion, the presence of as many as 15 European countries has been announced. The conference will be chaired by British Secretary of State D. Lammy, and the presence of several important diplomats from the Cabinet of PM. Kier Starmer has also been announced.

Despite some speculation that Britain will offer a "consociational" model for Bosnia and Herzegovina, which in translation means a transition towards a third entity, modeled on the peace agreement of the warring factions in Northern Ireland from 1998, we still expect Britain to offer a new and bold vision of modern Bosnia and Herzegovina. We have grounds for these expectations in the statement of the British Ambassador in Sarajevo, who earlier this year, in a conversation with Marko Zelić, Deputy Mayor of Bugojno, stated: "one day there will be no constituent peoples in BiH" because it is "an element that BiH must give up" on its path to membership in the European Union, which "shocked" Miroslav Zelić from the HDZBiH.

The scandalous press conference between Lavrov and Dodik in Moscow on September 9th served as a diplomatic blow to BiH and, in addition, an attack on the aforementioned Initiatives of Turkey, Italy, Britain and Germany, despite the fact that Turkey distanced itself in its Platform that it did not want to be a "counterweight to Russia in the Balkans" or an alternative to America and the EU".

For the first time, Lavrov called Bosniaks "Muslims" and, thus, this world-class diplomat accepted Dodik's militant vocabulary, and called the Federation of BiH a "Muslim-Croatian federation" at a time when Dodik, in his presence, called for a "third entity for Croats". Lavrov crossed the “psychological Rubicon” at this conference on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

For the first time, he accused Brussels of working against the “Orthodox world”... Also, for the first time, Lavrov spoke about European “anti-Slavism”. This was a precedent. This is a very clear message: under the Dayton Agreement, as a mere cover, Russia is destroying the unipolar world and, behind our backs, is presenting a new – multipolar world and, sending us a message in the spirit of A. Dugin’s philosophy about this “new reality” of the world.

Minister Lavrov, in a different narrative, actually said that he sees the future of this country through the policy of further escalation of the crisis, of “political Orthodoxy” and, therefore, he rejects all diplomatic Platforms, Initiatives or, Conferences on multilateral solutions.

Conclusion

Between these two doctrines that are bitterly fighting behind the backs of this people, Circle 99 offers new solutions. We offer a Model of Bosnia and Herzegovina based on European standards, on the implemented judgments of the European Court of Human Rights.

We have written this in our crown document, the "White Paper on Security" as well as in the Proposal for a Draft New Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which we will announce to the public very soon.

Circle 99 calls on all citizens to critically examine the content of both doctrines that are based either on "Russian fear" or on the "failed beliefs" of the West about the "agreement of the people".

Our, modern BiH, with European standards is the only way out of this state of hopelessness and apathy.

                                     Fuad Đidić, diplomat and publicist

Sarajevo, September 14, 2025

 


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