SVIJET KROZ 10 – 20 GODINA THE WORLD IN 10 - 20 YEARS
Tarik
Kupusović
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U narednih 10-ak godina, ako preživi, svijet
će sigurno izgledati mnogo drugačije nego danas, zbog nekoliko temeljnih
promjena. Nije loše prvo se podsjetiti odakle smo došli do stanja danas. Na razvoj društava prvih civilizacija, presudno je uticalo privatno vlasništvo, ekonomija i trgovina, znači kapitalizam, koji je prolazio kroz niz faza. Kapitalizam je ekonomski sistem u kojem individualci posjeduju vlasništvo, djeluju u svom interesu, te gdje se vrijednosti, znači cijene, manje ili više slobodno, formiraju na tržištu. Razmjena se odvija uz obostrani interes, pod uticajem ponude i potražnje. Od XV do XVIII stoljeća, preovladavao je imperijalistički kapitalizam, zasnovan na monopolima i eksploataciji kolonija. Industrijska revolucija krajem XVIII i u XIX stoljeću dovodi do preokreta s individualne poljoprivrede i zanatstva, na fabričku proizvodnju, kroz mehanizaciju, značajno povećavajući produktivnost. Krajem XIX stoljeća, kapitalizam se oblikuje u sistem dominantnih korporacija i monopola, narušavajući konkurenciju i povećavajući radnu eksploataciju. Vlasti pokušavaju uvesti antimonopolističke zakone, ali najvispreniji poduzetnici odgovaraju masovnijom proizvodnjom i podsticanjem potrošnje, uz povećavanje efikasnosti, standardizacijom i podjelom rada, te tako povećavaju svoj profit. Razvijajaju se berze i finansijska tržišta, te počinju regulisati prava radnika. Nakon berzanskog sloma 1929. i kasnije II svjetskog rata, razvijaju se politike državnih intervencija za stabiliziranje tržišta i društvenog blagostanja, uključujući zdravstvenu zaštitu, penzije i nadoknade za vrijeme nezaposlenosti. Uz javne investicije u razvoj infrastrukture i ubrzani tehnološki razvoj, dolazi do većeg napretka ekonomije i znatnog porasta obuhvata i standarda srednje klase. S kraja XX vijeka do danas, počinje preovladavati neoliberalni, globalni kapitalizam, koji promoviše deregulaciju, privatizaciju i slobodno tržište, sa što manje intervencija vlasti. Multinacionalne korporacije i finansijske institucije ostvaruju dominantan uticaj na razvoj ekonomija i društava u cijelom svijetu. Tradicionalni kapitalizam i sva društva, danas su suočeni sa revolucionarnim razvojem informatičkih i komunikacionih tehnologija, automatizacijom i robotikom, te vještačkom inteligencijom, sve uz sve veće okolišne uticaje, uključujući klimatske promjene. Dakle, današnje stanje kapitalizma je pred nizom izazova.
Prvo: ·
Rast
svjetske populacije opada; već za 20-ak godina, ukupna populacija će poćeti
da opada; ·
Smanjivaće
se broj radno sposobnog stanovništva; ·
Ljudi će
živjeti duže – sve je više penzionera, viši su medicinski troškovi i veća je
zavisnost starijih ljudi od države; ·
Ukupni
potencijal tržišta će se smanjivati; manje ljudi će zarađivati novac da
kupuje robu i razne usluge. Tržište u današnjem obliku, uz tehnološki razvoj, nastalo je na porastu broja kupaca, koji imaju sve više novca, da kupuju ponuđene robe i usluge. Bez ovog porasta, drastične promjene su dugoročno neizbježne. Drugo je automatizacija. Ako se i ne dostigne stvarna vještačka inteligencija u narednih nekoliko decenija, automatiziraće se mnogi poslovi, koje su do sada radili samo ljudi. To će preoblikovati postojeće poglede na novac i poslove: * Priroda poslova će se promijeniti, mnogo
temeljnije nego u doba prosvjetiteljstva i prve industrijske revolucije.
Mnogi ljudi već danas imaju otpor na stalne i sve brže promjene i inovacije u
vrstama poslova, tako da će rasti društveni problemi; * Sredstva automatizacije su u dominantnom
vlasništvu veoma male klase individualaca, koji će iznajmljivanjem ili
prodajom tih sredstava, ostvarivati enormne profite, što se već dešava. To
dovodi do impozantne nejednakosti. Vlasti se teško bore sa istiskivanjem
srednje klase, jer su i same podložne najbogatijim, koji u stvari vladaju. * Vještačka inteligencija (AI), u nekom
momentu će dostići nivo sofisticiranosti, da se nikakvim objektivnim testom
neće moći razlikovati od ljudske inteligencije, uz istovremeno enormno bolje učinke.
Moral, empatija i slično, ostaju vjerovatno jedine, isključivo ljudske
osobine, ali se ipak već postavlja pitanje prepoznavanja AI-a kao pravne ili
fizičke osobe! S kojim obavezama i pravima? Velika
je ironija da zakonodavstvo uvijek kaska za tehnološkim razvojem, barem za
generaciju. Treće, prirodni resursi. Iscpljuju se na samo fosilna goriva i mineralni resursi, nego i pitka voda i plodna, produktivna zemljišta. Klimatski ciljevi sigurno neće biti ostvareni, kako su proklamirani. Ipak, velik je porast proizvodnje obnovljive energije, zatim mogućnosti upravljanja informacijama i fizičkom proizvodnjom, sa vrlo malo ograničenja, te hiper-personalizacija zdravstvenih usluga. Ali, s automatizacijom svega navedenog i nenavedenog, najveće je pitanje ko je vlasnik tih tehnologija, te kako su dobiti raspoređene? Sve skupa, veoma ozbiljni su izazovi za kapitalizam i uređenje društava, te globalne civilizacije, kakva je danas. Vlasti bi trebale osiguravati građanima da mogu održavati i unaprjeđivati kvalitet svojih života. Zato je očigledno potrebna sveobuhvatna reforma, ili neki potpuno drugačiji ekonomski i društveni model. Inače je kolaps na pomolu, ako se sistem ne
uspije reformisati prije nego što napetosti postanu prevelike!
Napomena: Ovaj esej inspirisan je tekstovima: Mustafe Suleyman-a, the CEO of Microsoft AI;
UK, te Zahida Iqbal-a i Jasona Whyte-a , Quora, nov. '25; USA. „Do
znanja se dolazi učenjem, do mudrosti življenjem“ (A. D. Williams). ("Knowledge comes from learning, Wisdom
from living." - Anthony Douglas Williams, Canada)." |
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In the next 10 years or so, if it survives,
the world will certainly look much different than it does today, due to
several fundamental changes. It is not a bad idea to first remind ourselves of where we came from. The development of the societies of the first civilizations was crucially influenced by private property, economics and trade, i.e. capitalism, which went through a series of phases. Capitalism is an economic system in which individuals own property, act in their own interests, and where values, i.e. prices, are more or less freely formed on the market. Exchange takes place with mutual interest, under the influence of supply and demand. From the 15th to the 18th centuries, imperialist capitalism prevailed, based on monopolies and the exploitation of colonies. The Industrial Revolution at the end of the 18th and in the 19th centuries led to a shift from individual agriculture and crafts to factory production through mechanization, significantly increasing productivity. At the end of the 19th century, capitalism took shape in a system of dominant corporations and monopolies, distorting competition and increasing labor exploitation. The authorities try to introduce antitrust laws, but the most astute entrepreneurs respond by mass production and encouraging consumption, while increasing efficiency, standardization and division of labor, and thus increasing their profits. Stock exchanges and financial markets develop, and begin to regulate workers' rights. After the stock market crash of 1929 and later World War II, state intervention policies are developed to stabilize markets and social welfare, including health care, pensions and unemployment benefits. With public investment in infrastructure development and accelerated technological development, there is greater economic progress and a significant increase in the scope and standards of the middle class. From the end of the 20th century to the present, neoliberal, global capitalism begins to prevail, which promotes deregulation, privatization and free markets, with as little government intervention as possible. Multinational corporations and financial institutions have a dominant influence on the development of economies and societies throughout the world. Traditional capitalism and all societies are now faced with the revolutionary development of information and communication technologies, automation and robotics, and artificial intelligence, all with increasing environmental impacts, including climate change. Therefore, the current state of capitalism is facing a number of challenges.
First: • The growth of the world's population is
declining; in about 20 years, the total population will begin to decline; • The number of working-age people will
decrease; • People will live longer - there will be
more retirees, higher medical costs and greater dependence of older people on
the state; • The total potential of the market will
decrease; fewer people will earn money to buy goods and various services. The market in its current form, with technological development, was created on the increase in the number of buyers, who have more and more money to buy the goods and services offered. Without this increase, drastic changes are inevitable in the long term. The second is automation. Even if true artificial intelligence is not achieved in the next few decades, many jobs that have so far been done only by humans will be automated. This will reshape existing views on money and jobs: •
The nature of jobs will change, much more fundamentally than in the era of
the Enlightenment and the first industrial revolution. Many people already
resist constant and increasingly rapid changes and innovations in the types
of jobs, so that social problems will grow; •
The means of automation are dominantly owned by a very small class of
individuals, who will realize enormous profits by renting or selling these
means, which is already happening. This leads to impressive inequality. The
authorities are struggling to cope with the displacement of the middle class,
because they themselves are subject to the richest, who actually rule. •
Artificial intelligence (AI), at some point, will reach a level of
sophistication that will be indistinguishable from human intelligence by any
objective test, while at the same time performing enormously better.
Morality, empathy and the like remain probably the only, exclusively human
traits, but the question of recognizing AI as a legal or physical person is
still being raised! With what obligations and rights? It is a great irony
that legislation always lags behind technological developments, at least for
a generation. Third, natural resources. Not only fossil fuels and mineral resources are being depleted, but also fresh water and fertile, productive land. Climate goals will certainly not be achieved, as they were proclaimed. However, there is a huge increase in renewable energy production, then the ability to manage information and physical production, with very few restrictions, and hyper-personalization of health services. But, with the automation of all the above and not mentioned, the biggest question is who owns these technologies, and how are the benefits distributed? All in all, these are very serious challenges for capitalism and the organization of societies, and global civilization, as it is today. Governments should ensure that citizens can maintain and improve the quality of their lives. Therefore, a comprehensive reform, or some completely different economic and social model, is clearly needed. Otherwise, collapse is on the horizon, if the system fails to reform before the tensions become too great!
Note: This essay was inspired by the texts of Mustafa Suleyman, the CEO of Microsoft AI; UK, and by Zahid Iqbal and Jason Whyte, Quora, Nov. '25; USA. "Knowledge is gained by learning, wisdom
is gained by living" (A. D. Williams). ("Knowledge comes from learning,
Wisdom from living." - Anthony Douglas Williams, Canada)." |
